SemiConscious Dot Org

As mentioned last week, I am currently knee-deep in a magnum opus of depressing nonfiction, James Kunstler’s The Long Emergency, which describes in great detail the withdrawals that await our oil-addicted society. The thrust of his argument is that America is headed for disaster, due to our willful blindness about the catastrophic effects that fossil fuel depletion will have on us. He notes that many of us live under the happy delusion that, if we have 35 years of oil left, we have 35 years to find a new fuel source.

We do not have this luxury. The traumatic global economic impact of oil depletion will begin to crash down on us as soon as we pass Peak Oil (the point at which every oil producer is pumping at maximum production, but total yearly world oil output declines anyway, and demand for oil begins to outstrip production.) There is ample evidence that we may actually be at Peak Oil right now, or will reach it in the next couple of years. We won’t know, except in hindsight, exactly when the rubicon was crossed. (For example, the United States passed its peak of domestic oil production in 1970, but that fact didn’t become clear until the 1973 OPEC oil embargo, when we were unable to increase domestic pumping to offset the boycott, because we were already at maximum capacity.)

Right now, I am currently reading the very terrifying Chapter 4 of this book, in which Kunstler explains in exhaustive detail how each of the “alternative fuels” we are counting on to save us and eventually replace oil (ie hydrogen, biodiesel, ethanol, nuclear, solar etc.) is a sham; each is in some way dependent on oil for its production.

A full review of the book will be forthcoming when I finish it, but the reason I mention it now is due to a couple of coincidental events. First, George Bush mentioned the words “oil addiction” in his State of the Union speech:

Keeping America competitive requires affordable energy. Here we have a serious problem: America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world.

The best way to break this addiction is through technology. Since 2001, we have spent nearly 10 billion dollars to develop cleaner, cheaper, more reliable alternative energy sources – and we are on the threshold of incredible advances. So tonight, I announce the Advanced Energy Initiative – a 22-percent increase in clean-energy research at the Department of Energy, to push for breakthroughs in two vital areas. To change how we power our homes and offices, we will invest more in zero-emission coal-fired plants; revolutionary solar and wind technologies; and clean, safe nuclear energy.

We must also change how we power our automobiles. We will increase our research in better batteries for hybrid and electric cars, and in pollution-free cars that run on hydrogen. We will also fund additional research in cutting-edge methods of producing ethanol, not just from corn but from wood chips, stalks, or switch grass. Our goal is to make this new kind of ethanol practical and competitive within six years. Breakthroughs on this and other new technologies will help us reach another great goal: to replace more than 75 percent of our oil imports from the Middle East by 2025. By applying the talent and technology of America, this country can dramatically improve our environment … move beyond a petroleum-based economy … and make our dependence on Middle Eastern oil a thing of the past.

For someone like DubYa, whose personal and familial fortunes, as well as those of practically everyone in his administration, to admit this is extraordinary; the analogy would be that of your heroin pusher telling you that you were shooting up too much. To me, his admission indicates that, perhaps, the energy conglomerates who bankroll this administration are finally waking up and realizing just how dire the situation really is. While my antipathy towards DubYa, his regime, and his entire political party is a matter of long-standing public record, I would be prepared to forgive a lot if he actually means those three paragraphs.

(Update #1: Whoops, it looks like he didn’t really mean it after all. I should’ve known.)

(Update#2: For analysis of other topics in DubYa’s speech, check out Floating Eyeball.)

The other incident to coincide with my reading of this book was the arrival, two days ago, of my electricity bill from the city of Seattle. The bill, which is bimonthly, came to $87.96, an amazingly low figure considering that my apartment is also heated with electric heat, and it’s the middle of the winter. This started me thinking about the implications of location, when and if we find no replacement for oil in the near future. In a post-oil world, heating and cooling will be precious commodities, and places where where one is not required to do a great deal of either will be infinitely preferable. (Like, for instance, the Pacific Northwest.) Conversely, places that have either broiling hot summers or frigid winters, or densely populated places where one must ship in food from far away, will not be pleasant. (In other words, if you’re thinking of moving to Arizona or Minnesota or New York City, you might want to think again.)

The Long Emergency, for all its terrifying implications, is almost impossible to put down. I am plowing rapidly through the book, so a full review should be forthcoming shortly. In the meantime, those who would like an introduction to Kunstler’s writings and the problem of Peak Oil should check out his blog.